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Thread: Gas Prices

  1. #1621
    Insider Frank Capua's Avatar
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    It's still above $2.15 down here in Florida... And why do we have a winter blend? It was 80 today when I did my 17 miles...

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  2. #1622
    Insider Truth Detector's Avatar
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    Spiked again today.
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  3. #1623
    It was 80 here in Denver too
    Quote Originally Posted by Frank Capua View Post
    It's still above $2.15 down here in Florida... And why do we have a winter blend? It was 80 today when I did my 17 miles...
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  4. #1624
    iLl-enfORmed yOKel Ren Butler's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Truth Detector View Post
    Spiked again today.
    Weird. I didn't get a mobile alert like I usually do.

    And it's a fairly large one too. But I guess it's that time of year.
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  5. #1625
    iLl-enfORmed yOKel Ren Butler's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Frank Capua View Post
    How much are the Shale Oil producers with production contracts losing per barrell?
    Quote Originally Posted by goner View Post
    I've read they need $100 to make it worthwhile. Will get interesting.
    Quote Originally Posted by Ren Butler View Post
    That's way higher than anything I've heard, although I've heard lots of different numbers all over the board.

    Each shale is its own animal, and just like any other industry, each producer has its own abilities (or inabilities) to control production costs, all of which leads to some of the uncertain numbers.
    After recent shutdowns, some of the most savvy shale producers have found a way to break even with oil under $40/barrel.

    http://oilprice.com/Energy/Energy-Ge...nce-Again.html

    The drilling spirit is indeed back, and the break even prices in the best shale areas are now below $40. According to Bloomberg Intelligence analyst William Foiles, in the Eagle Ford, for example, drillers in LaSalle County break even at $36 oil price, and at $39 per barrel oil in Gonzales County.

    ...

    So, in order for the U.S. shale to start thinking of idling rigs en masse again, oil prices would have to drop and stay at even lower for longer, at below $40. The leaner, meaner and more resilient U.S. shale is basically wiping out OPEC’s efforts to achieve higher oil prices with the output deal. The cartel seems to be caught between a rock and a hard place -- extending and/or deepening cuts and losing precious market share to U.S. shale, or ditching the price-fixing policy and letting the next oil price war begin.

  6. #1626
    Insider Truth Detector's Avatar
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    Just got a spike alert.

    Info from the Gas Game doesn't support it.

    Odd.

  7. #1627
    Insider MoparsRule's Avatar
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    $1.95 on the way into work today and $2.29 at lunch. I told the Mrs to fill up last night but she didn't listen so she stopped on the way home tonight.

  8. #1628
    Insider Truth Detector's Avatar
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    I filled up in Mooresville yesterday for $1.79/gallon. Glad I did.

  9. #1629
    iLl-enfORmed yOKel Ren Butler's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Truth Detector View Post
    Just got a spike alert.
    Wow, you got it late. Got mine from Gas Buddy at noon.

  10. #1630
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    They like you better.

  11. #1631
    Insider MoparsRule's Avatar
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    I am shocked that prices spiked on Thursday. SHOCKED I tell you!!!

  12. #1632
    iLl-enfORmed yOKel Ren Butler's Avatar
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    Awesome, another opportunity for annoying data!

    In the past 53 weeks, there have been 35 price spikes in Indy, no more than one per week. Here's the share of spikes by day of the week:

    SUN: 0
    MON: 4
    TUE: 6
    WED: 9
    THU: 11
    FRI: 4
    SAT: 1

    Although Thursday has seen the most spikes, they account for fewer than one third of all spikes. And only 21% of all Thursdays have seen a spike. By a fairly large margin, it's more common for spikes not to occur on a given Thursday.

    May the data bashing proceed.

  13. #1633
    Insider MoparsRule's Avatar
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    prices are more likely to spike on a Thursday than any other day of the week? That is a surprise.

  14. #1634
    iLl-enfORmed yOKel Ren Butler's Avatar
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    You're not really saying that it's a surprise. And neither am I.

    But it's not really quite the "thing" people make it out to be.

    It's really more of a mid-week thing than an expressly Thursday thing.

  15. #1635

  16. #1636
    iLl-enfORmed yOKel Ren Butler's Avatar
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    For me, that link is redirecting to a generic Yahoo page.

    But every market is different. In Indy, about half our gas spikes happen on WED and THU, but they can happen any other weekday (and very rarely on Saturday). The worst day to buy is the day after the spike -- more often THU or FRI -- as you can still easily find deals on spike day using an app.

    I always just fill up at a pre-spike station as soon as a spike is reported. On weeks without a spike (which accounts for about one third of all weeks), I simply short-fill at the cheapest nearby station, saving the full fill-up for the next pre-spike.

    Spikes by day of week, the last 59 weeks:

    SUN: 0
    MON: 4
    TUE: 7
    WED: 11
    THU: 11
    FRI: 4
    SAT: 1
    NO SPIKE: 21

  17. #1637
    Moderator DannyB's Avatar
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    While on my annual self imposed exile from the Hoosier state, I'm reminded each year that, in order to pay about 25-30 cents less per gallon, cross the border to South Carolina, about 20 miles from this mountain. Almost worth it to make a special trip.

  18. #1638
    Insider Truth Detector's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ren Butler View Post
    For me, that link is redirecting to a generic Yahoo page.


    Try this: http://finance.yahoo.com/news/best-d...154837695.html

  19. #1639
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    Filled up at Sam's for $2.15 yesterday. Many stations significantly higher.

  20. #1640
    Insider Truth Detector's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ren Butler View Post
    For me, that link is redirecting to a generic Yahoo page.

    But every market is different. In Indy, about half our gas spikes happen on WED and THU, but they can happen any other weekday (and very rarely on Saturday). The worst day to buy is the day after the spike -- more often THU or FRI -- as you can still easily find deals on spike day using an app.

    I always just fill up at a pre-spike station as soon as a spike is reported. On weeks without a spike (which accounts for about one third of all weeks), I simply short-fill at the cheapest nearby station, saving the full fill-up for the next pre-spike.


    Link to GasBuddy story.

  21. #1641
    Insider Frank Capua's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by Truth Detector View Post
    Great... But would have been more helpful if you have told us yesterday when it might have done some good.

  22. #1642
    iLl-enfORmed yOKel Ren Butler's Avatar
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    Another Tuesday spike, which is almost as common as Wed. and Thur.

    It's up to $2.359. I just noticed that the last 26 spikes, going back to 7/7/2016, have all been within a narrow band from $2.199 to $2.499. That's some pretty long-term stability.

  23. #1643
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    Filled up 2 cars & a 5 gallon can at $1.92 yesterday just because I needed to. Also, it seemed as if it had dropped low enough to see another spike before the weekend.

    I see it's already $2.49 in Monrovia.
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  24. #1644
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    Filled up my car in Austin, In today @ 1. Paid 1.759 for 25 dollars worth.

  25. #1645
    Moderator DannyB's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by racer47201 View Post
    Filled up my car in Austin, In today @ 1. Paid 1.759 for 25 dollars worth.
    Bet it's that little place by the interstate. They can be competitive..

  26. #1646
    Insider MoparsRule's Avatar
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    Mount Comfort Road and I-70... $2.39 at Pilot and $1.99 at Speedway next door.

  27. #1647
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    Still around $2.05-$2.15 in Ft. Wayne (I was working there today). When I left Indy I filled up for $1.96, well $2.03 (I get the 7 cent discount at Rickers). i just checked GasBuddy and it has spiked...ugh. I hate this bc there's really no reason for it. Oil prices are steady, there is some talk of OPEC cutbacks but the market seems confident in the US shale production market...thus no huge oil price spikes when OPEC has announced cuts recently. No refinery outages I can find. AAA has predicted a rise in the summer towards $2.80 but unlikely seeing it go above $3. However that article was published at the beginning of April so who knows??

    I'm still mad about the ridiculous markups on premium. I am supposed to run it in my Ford Explorer Sport (but can get away with 87)...but the old days of 25 cents more are long gone. Now, it's a 60-70 cent markup, which sucks if you have something that has to run on premium
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  28. #1648
    iLl-enfORmed yOKel Ren Butler's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mattbholland View Post
    Still around $2.05-$2.15 in Ft. Wayne (I was working there today). When I left Indy I filled up for $1.96, well $2.03 (I get the 7 cent discount at Rickers). i just checked GasBuddy and it has spiked...ugh. I hate this bc there's really no reason for it. Oil prices are steady, there is some talk of OPEC cutbacks but the market seems confident in the US shale production market...thus no huge oil price spikes when OPEC has announced cuts recently. No refinery outages I can find. AAA has predicted a rise in the summer towards $2.80 but unlikely seeing it go above $3. However that article was published at the beginning of April so who knows??
    According to The Gas Game, margins were tiny.

    When the blue line drops about equal to the orange line, stations aren't making much money at all, and the stations selling at the green line are taking a loss.


  29. #1649
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    Quote Originally Posted by Ren Butler View Post
    According to The Gas Game, margins were tiny.

    When the blue line drops about equal to the orange line, stations aren't making much money at all, and the stations selling at the green line are taking a loss.

    Thanks for the info. I knew the profit margins for gas at the end retailer were really always slim, learned that in ECON 101 back in the day. But that was also before credit cards at every pump, discounts, etc. Today I can fill up my car and never go into the station. As gas stations underwent the transition from full service to self serve in the 70s-90s, they could always still count on the customer going in to buy something. Gas became a "loss leader" so to speak. And even now to a good extent it still is. It would require more info than is readily available, but I'd bet those stations in the green are still making a profit off non gas purchases. But the credit card pumps did change that a bit....even then, and I'm speaking from 14 years of being a road sales rep....I nearly always go into the gas station to buy an item or two. And I see the lines...the Speedway at 116th and Olio is jammed at nearly all times of day by people buying sodas, food, etc. That's why we've seen "gas stations" transform into mini-marts, and we've also seen the death of the gas/auto repair station....

  30. #1650
    iLl-enfORmed yOKel Ren Butler's Avatar
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    Quote Originally Posted by mattbholland View Post
    Thanks for the info. I knew the profit margins for gas at the end retailer were really always slim...
    It's just a little different in our region, for whatever reason. The margin is always expanding and contracting throughout the spike cycle, as high as +20 cents a gallon down to -5 or more right before a spike.

    As much as it frustrates some people around here, the patient and the aware can work it out where they are always buying at a slim or even negative margin, even before applying shopping discounts. If the timing doesn't work out for you, short-fill when the margins are high and wait to fill up when margins are low.

    Quote Originally Posted by mattbholland View Post
    And I see the lines...the Speedway at 116th and Olio is jammed at nearly all times of day by people buying sodas, food, etc. That's why we've seen "gas stations" transform into mini-marts, and we've also seen the death of the gas/auto repair station....
    Yeah, I get the difference between an indulgence like pop/snacks and a commodity like gas, but if people are so upset by the cost of gas, with which they can drive around a few days, they would be shocked at the margin in a coffee or fountain drink, which fuels them for maybe an hour.

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