Peyton Manning analysis

[Jim Wilke]

Seattle is a team on the rise, solid defense, good running game and special teams. Just need a QB to turn close losses into wins. A number of the area fans have posited that maybe a trade for Peyton Manning could be worked out. This guy says no:

It’s simple economics. Forget the arguments about trading about a 36 year old QB who has a fused neck and hasn’t played in a year. Forget the argument about giving up a boat load of picks for a player that’ll only be there for a couple years. None of that matters.

The truth here is that Peyton Manning’s contract is not movable. If he’s healthy, he’s either released, and soon, or he’s going to be a Colt in 2012.

Manning is due a $28 million dollar bonus check on March 3rd. The soonest that Peyton can be traded is 10 days later on March 13th. That means that the Colts will be on the hook for all $28 mil of that bonus on the 2012 salary cap if he is traded or released after that date. This is on top of the remaining $16 mil of his original signing bonus that they’d be responsible for. So if the Colts trade Peyton Manning, he will count $44 million against their salary cap in 2012. There’s no way that happens.

It’s just not going to feasible. It’s pretty simple. It would be almost impossible for the Colts to even field a team with that much of a cap being attributed to a player who’s not even on the roster.

But what if Manning restructures his deal to facilitate a trade? That’s possible, but still very unlikely. In order for Peyton to be traded, he’ll have to restructure his deal ahead of time, meaning he’s going to know that the Colts will be trying to trade him. Why would Manning restructure his deal just to weaken his new team by causing them to have to give up draft picks in the trade? It’s much more likely that he’d just ask to be released if the Colts came to him asking for that type of restructure.

Nope, I don’t believe that will happen. He’ll either retire, be on the Colt’s roster for all of 2012, or be cut before that Roster bonus check is due.

I also don’t think the Colts will take advantage of the cap rules by waiting until after June 1st. Doing so will allow them to spread the cap hit for trading Peyton over 2 seasons. Waiting until June makes the cap hit more palatable, but that’s taking a big risk. By then there wont be many teams in the market for Peyton’s services, so they wont get as much in return.

The Colts will have also already paid Manning the $28 million bonus in that scenario. That’s a lot of cash to spend to try and get someone to give up a couple draft picks. It’s also money that might be better spent on a couple good free agents instead. Nope, sorry. Even that scenario makes absolutely no sense.

I just don’t see any way in which Manning gets traded this offseason.





Scenario, Cap Value



On Roster for 2012 $17 million



Cut Prior to 3/3/2012 $16 million



Traded (or Cut after 3/3/2012) $44 million



Cut or Traded After June 1st $22 million (same for 2013)

http://12thmanrising.com/2012/01/15/...ont-be-traded/

[Gomer Simpson]

If the cap hit is only $1 million less to cut him than it is to keep him, keeping him is a no-brainer, to me. Of course it's not my $28 milion.

Keep him for a year, let him prove that he is still the best QB in the NFL, then trade him next off-season.

[Jim Wilke]

If you cut him now, you save the $28 million roster bonus as well as $16 million in salary - that's $44 million for a guy who could go down in training camp and never play another down while young, healthy Andrew Luck is holding a clipboard for another $25 million gtd, $6 million against the cap. That gives you $23 million against the cap for 2 QBs, numbers that teams like New England and Philadelphia couldn't handle .... and they didn't have the holes to fill that Indy does.

My bet is that the Colts make an injury settlement with Peyton and he signs with another team, either the Redskins or Miami.

[Gomer Simpson]

If you cut him now, you save the $28 million roster bonus as well as $16 million in salary - that's $44 million for a guy who could go down in training camp and never play another down while young, healthy Andrew Luck is holding a clipboard for another $25 million gtd, $6 million against the cap. That gives you $23 million against the cap for 2 QBs, numbers that teams like New England and Philadelphia couldn't handle .... and they didn't have the holes to fill that Indy does.

My bet is that the Colts make an injury settlement with Peyton and he signs with another team, either the Redskins or Miami.

Cut Prior to 3/3/2012 $16 million

Am I reading the article you posted wrong? It looks to me like it is saying that the $16 million counts against the cap either way.

[Danny Noonan]

Am I reading the article you posted wrong? It looks to me like it is saying that the $16 million counts against the cap either way.

This is where things always get complicated, but if the Colts release Manning prior to the signing bonus date I believe the only salary capy hit would be a pro-rated portion of the signing bonus he received in 2011. Plus they obviously wouldn't have to pay him the combined $44m in cash during 2012.

If they pay the bonus and then trade him, that is when the salary cap hit is crippling. That just isn't an option.

[Jim Wilke]

Am I reading the article you posted wrong? It looks to me like it is saying that the $16 million counts against the cap either way.

I _think_ that even if Peyton is cut tomorrow, there will be a cap hit due to some of his '11 salary being pro-rated but I don't think it is $16 million. I think it is closer to $10 million in a cap hit but that comes no matter what.

I've heard rumors that the Colts and Peyton have quietly asked if they could extend the 3/3 deadline to give everyone a chance to see how his medical procedures are healing but have been told no by the NFLPA.

Meanwhile, the Colts have less than $10 million in cap space.

I don't see how they keep Peyton and draft Luck.

[Frank Capua]

Oh... okay. Thought maybe Peyton got a new job there for a second.

[Gomer Simpson]

I heard Adam Vinatieri on ESPN over the weekend say that he saw Peyton throwing to receivers after practice in December and he looked good. He stopped short of saying Peyton looked like his old self but did say, 'He looked like an NFL quarterback... he can throw better than I can'.

Charley Casserly said that the Arizona Cardinals would be a team likely to heavily persue Peyton if he became a free agent. Their contract with Kolb is written in a way that they could get out of it and have plenty of cap room to pay Peyton. That would be an ideal situation for Colts fans, if Peyton has to play somewhere else, imo. I could definitely still root for him out there. It would be much harder if he were in the AFC.

[WheelerDealer]

Very complicated issue. Manning cannot pass his physical by March 3. Healing process for nerve damage takes too long. Healing rate is 1 mm per day, 1 inch per month, and 1 foot per year. No way Jose. What do you do? No way to know if he can return to football form for nearly 9 - 12 months. Maybe a medical Redshirt? I have no answer, but expect a healthy Manning means he is a Colt. An unhealthy Manning means he is a retired Colt.

[fasteddy]

So when the Colts interview GM candidates is the first question "What do we do with Peyton Manning"?

If I'm reading this correctly, I would say they release him.

[Ren Butler]

The Colts already have their GM, and the first question to answer is about the coaching staff.

There's still time to think about Manning. Not all offseason, by any means. But weeks for sure.

[Gomer Simpson]

So when the Colts interview GM candidates is the first question "What do we do with Peyton Manning"?

Before they made the hire Irsay said that he alone would make the decision both on Peyton and the #1 pick. He didn't want the pressure/blame put on the new guy walking into the situation.

[fasteddy]

I didn't know the Colts had hired someone already. I'm a Bear fan, and I don't think anyone who is qualified actually WANTS the Bear GM job.

[WheelerDealer]

I didn't know the Colts had hired someone already. I'm a Bear fan, and I don't think anyone who is qualified actually WANTS the Bear GM job.

That means the Polians will land there. Bill is qualified, Chris is not. Unfortunately, like the Colts learned, they are a package deal.

[don7031]

We just may find out how much money Dan Snider is willing to spend. Peyton Manning could be the first $50 million a year player.

With Mark Sanchez receiving the lion's share of the blame for the Jets lack of success this season, he has become replaceable. So if Manning values a shot at another Super Bowl ring more than digits on his balance sheet, New York could be the home of two Mannings next season.

[mesquite]

Is there any chance Peyton decides to give it a go even without healing 100% ?

[JStand]

Am I reading the article you posted wrong? It looks to me like it is saying that the $16 million counts against the cap either way.

That's the way I read it. I have yet to hear a plausible scenario where Peyton plays anywhere but Indy next year. It is more likely he never plays again than plays for another team. Cutting him doesn't really save us money, and trading him costs us a ton of money.

[Jim Wilke]

Cutting him saves a $28 millon roster bonus and $10+ million salary in 2012. That's not saving Indy any money?

[Danny Noonan]

That's the way I read it. I have yet to hear a plausible scenario where Peyton plays anywhere but Indy next year. It is more likely he never plays again than plays for another team. Cutting him doesn't really save us money, and trading him costs us a ton of money.

If the Colts cut him, they will certainly take a hit for the 2012 but it would be nothing compared to his salary cap amount if they pay him his bonus in March and he gets additional guaranteed years. If he was never able to play again after getting the March bonus, the Colts would basically be forced to keep him on the roster for the duration of his contract rather than cutting him. So you would 1) be paying millions of dollars for a player who is a major medical risk, 2) lose a roster spot for the duration of his contract if he can't play, and 3)have no salary cap flexibility for the next 4 years.

The plausible scenario for him playing elsewhere is 1) the Colts cut him and 2) another team signs him to $6m two year (2nd year is team mutual option) guaranteed contract with tons of performance incentives. I do agree that perhaps a more likely scenario is Manning played his last game as a Colt in January of 2011.

To whomever mentioned the Redskins paying him a $50m salary - this isn't the MLB. The NFL has a hard salary cap and no one gets paid anything close to that annually. Peyton isn't going to get a huge signing bonus anywhere else if he is released by the Colts.

[Jim Wilke]

To whomever mentioned the Redskins paying him a $50m salary - this isn't the MLB. The NFL has a hard salary cap and no one gets paid anything close to that annually

True. I believe Aaron Rodgers is around $6 million and the top 5 - Brady, Vick, Eli, Sanchez, Ben - are all in the $12-15M range. Peyton, as good as he has been, is 36 and coming off of 3 neck surgeries in the last 21 months.

[Gomer Simpson]

True. I believe Aaron Rodgers is around $6 million and the top 5 - Brady, Vick, Eli, Sanchez, Ben - are all in the $12-15M range. Peyton, as good as he has been, is 36 and coming off of 3 neck surgeries in the last 21 months.

I'm pretty sure Brady's latest contract pays him $18M a year. Peyton and the Colts held out last season until after Tom signed his contract. Irsay was intent on making sure Peyton stayed the highest paid player in the NFL. After Brady finally signed and the season ended, Peyton signed his deal which averaged $21M. I'm not sure how signing bonuses played into those numbers, though.

[sightlines]

Payton has thrown his last pass in the NFL. You read it here first.

[crispy]

Payton has thrown his last pass in the NFL. You read it here first.

We're talking about Peyton...

[Danny Noonan]

I'm pretty sure Brady's latest contract pays him $18M a year. Peyton and the Colts held out last season until after Tom signed his contract. Irsay was intent on making sure Peyton stayed the highest paid player in the NFL. After Brady finally signed and the season ended, Peyton signed his deal which averaged $21M. I'm not sure how signing bonuses played into those numbers, though.

Brady's base salary for 2011 and 2012 is $5.75m, for 2013 and 2014 it's $9.75. Similar to Peyton, Tom also receives a bonus at the beginning of the first day of the "next" league season if he's on the roster the last game of the preceding season (roster bonus). These amounts are $4m, $6m, $5m and $5m, respectively. He did receive a $16m signing bonus when he signed his 5 year contact. The NFL cap amount each year is too involved for me to get into but the $18m average seems about right for Brady.

But again, even when you include signing bonuses and roster bonuses, no player is even close to $50m a year.

[Frank Capua]

Payton has thrown his last pass in the NFL. You read it here first.

Payton hasn't thrown his first pass in the NFL... But there aren't a lot of Quartebacks in the NFL who played Golf for UAB at the turn of the Century. Heck Payton Osborn never quite made it to the PGA.

But you are right... we read it here first.

[dog-ring]

Word at the Colts office is that Caldwell is now safe..............which means if Manning is ok physically he'll get his money.although it may be restructured............

[Gomer Simpson]

Word at the Colts office is that Caldwell is now safe..............which means if Manning is ok physically he'll get his money.although it may be restructured............

The only incentive for Peyton to restructure is if he just wants to remain a Colt. I hope that is the case.

[WheelerDealer]

Word at the Colts office is that Caldwell is now safe..............which means if Manning is ok physically he'll get his money.although it may be restructured............

Alledgedly talking to Steve Spagnuolo about DC position.

[Ren Butler]

Alledgedly talking to Steve Spagnuolo about DC position.

Resumé

Part of some strong defenses in Philly (position coach) and for the New York Giants (defensive coordinator). With the Giants for their Super Bowl win in the 2007 season, and the fifth-ranked defense in the NFL in 2008. All this before having a rough go as a head coach in St. Louis.

Although they were a terrible team, the Rams had a top-ten passing defense (yardage) in 2011.

[Jimmy_22]

Here's the breakdown for Mr Manning. He was paid a $20m signing bonus in 2011 (cap hit is $4m for five years). He was also paid a $3m roster bonus in the $8.6m Misc Bonus category. That's a nice little kitty of $26.4m last year for holding a clipboard.

The remaining $28m would be a pre-paid option for the five years of $5.6m. (this is how I read it anyway)

Base Salary S. Bonus Misc. Bonus Cap Hit
2011 3,400,000 4,000,000 8,600,000 16,000,000
2012 7,400,000 4,000,000 5,600,000 17,000,000
2013 8,400,000 4,000,000 5,600,000 18,000,000
2014 9,400,000 4,000,000 5,600,000 19,000,000
2015 10,400,000 4,000,000 5,600,000 20,000,000

•Signing Bonus: $20 million in 2011
•Option Bonus: $28 million (Due: 03/03/2012)
•2011 Roster Bonus: $3 million

To get more juicy information - go here - great site:

http://www.spotrac.com/nfl/indianapolis-colts/