Educated Guess Time

[Todd Gack]

Here is my "educated" guess on how the engine crap shook out the past few days.

Herta and D&R were threatening lawsuits (breach of contract/lack of living up to original provisions) to break out of their contracts. Herta was likely the spearhead of this and pulled his car out of Brazil as a protest. Knowing what a s-storm that was brewing and with that 33 number still shaky for Indy, Phillips and the ICS twisted a few arms to get LOTUS to say uncle and let them both out.

Shank has likely had this deal with Howard done for weeks. He has likely also been raising hell in the background, wanting/demanding an engine. And until recently, there was none for him to use. (Like I said last week, there were drivers with full funding for Indy not in rides). Shank has probably known about this Herta/D&R stuff for the past few weeks and knew at worst, a LOTUS slot could open up for Indy. And for Shank, he just wants to make the Indy 500. And this year, if you enter Indy your are almost assured to make it. So conveniently on the exact same day that Herta/D&R are let out of their contracts, Shank and Howard announce their Indy 500 entry. What a coincidence. Now the onus is on the sport to give them an engine and lo-and-behold, a couple are now available.

Herta and D&R are now without a lease for Indy and beyond. So, lets go to the Indy entry list and see where they get their engine from. Chevy is at 14 committed for Indy. Their 11 full-timers, plus Andretti's 2 extra ride-buyers and the yet unannounced 2nd Carpenter car. So Chevy tells Ed, "Uhh, Eddie and Derrick, you know that 2nd car for Indy we already told you we'd help you with...there's been a change in plans." "We have a full-time team that we want to add to our camp and we need your lease". "Ed, make up some story about wanting to concentrate on your own effort at Indy...blah blah blah... So Ed's 2nd car is dead, not because they didn't have a chassis (they do) not because they didn't have the money (they do) and not because they didn't have the driver (they do). Their lease for that 2nd car is now not available to him for that car. Goodbye 2004 Indy 500 winner and 2011 Fast 9 qualifyer. Hello Oriol. (Its also why Panther wasn't allowed to run a 2nd car this year at Indy...no lease available to them either).

Now could both D&R and Herta end up with Chevy? Honda has been hellbent on only running 14 cars at Indy (for whatever lame reason). So, could Chevy go to 15 cars? Maybe. One of their engine dork representatives was quoted recently as saying they might go to 15 cars for the "right deal". Another full-time team (with a nice amount of $$$ being paid to Chevy as well) could get them to swing a 15th lease loose. And Honda can stay with their steadfast 14 for Indy.

So where does that leave us? At the same lame-ass car count for Indy we were at yesterday. Maybe 34. And the longer we hear nothing from Newman-Haas/Alesi, the more doubtful that one gets. The closer we get to May, the more now I think we are going to end up with 33 car/driver combos. Just the way Chevy/Honda/LOTUS wanted it all along. 33 isn't just a number. But its the number the folks running the sport and calling ALL the shots, have decided is their "limit" for Indy. Again, coincidently.

All we have done today is replace ECR/Buddy Rice with either Herta or D&R. And replaced Herta and D&R with Shank/Jay Howard. One step forward, one step backward.

How's that sound?

[DaveL]

Nothing says Indy Tradition more than engine companies deciding how many entries will be allowed for the race and teams going through all kinds of gymnastics to try to get a lease. Yesiree, this is the sort of thing that makes me dream about the moonlight on the Wabash.

I know, I know...wait till next year.

[Chris Paff]

Nothing says Indy Tradition more than engine companies deciding how many entries will be allowed for the race and teams going through all kinds of gymnastics to try to get a lease. Yesiree, this is the sort of thing that makes me dream about the moonlight on the Wabash.

I know, I know...wait till next year.

This is a total embarassment.. Nothing like hurting the only race that matters on the entire schedule..

[kevin99]

One step forward, one step backward.

There is no step forward here.

Your post is spot on, and the BS is all from these engine leases and Indycar.

When Jay Howard gets a ride and Buddy Rice doesn't makes most real fans wnat to puke.

[Chris Paff]

When Jay Howard gets a ride and Buddy Rice doesn't makes most real fans wnat to puke.

Exactly, add Jourdain.. Simona.. Legge.. Savadra.. Viso.. Beatriz..

Buddy is very talented.. He showed that in 2004 and Rahal bascially screwed him once Danica came along..

[Todd Gack]

When Jay Howard gets a ride and Buddy Rice doesn't makes most real fans wnat to puke.

Its not even that.

Jay Howard and Buddy Rice should BOTH be entrants in the Indy 500. And both would, if the Indy 500 wasn't being held hostige (and that is basically what is happening) by the engine manufacturers and their horse**** rules/regulations (which the ICS plays a role in too, so they aren't off the hook either).

Carpenter's team is not being ALLOWED to enter a 2nd car at Indy. That car from literally EVERYONE I have spoken to, was bound for 2004 Indy 500 winner Buddy Rice. That is why ECR entered it in the first place. And that's what would have happened, until Herta and D&R decided to do what they did. Now, the ICS has 2 full-time entries that need a lease deal not only for Indy but for the season and since Chevy and Honda are NOT going to budge on their moronic "limits", then that means we have to cut somebody for Indy. And Carpenter got cut. Simple as that.

33 (maybe) cars at Indy. They should just cancel the first week of practice, let them show up on Thursday the 24th, practice for one day, qualify for 2 hours after the Freedom 100 on the 25th, do the parade on the 26th, race on the 27th and get the hell out of town.

That's the next step as we systematically kill the month of May and this event....just like Tony George predicted years ago.

[Chris Paff]

They should just cancel the first week of practice, let them show up on Thursday the 24th, practice for one day, qualify for 2 hours after the Freedom 100 on the 25th, do the parade on the 26th, race on the 27th and get the hell out of town.

That's the next step as we systematically kill the month of May and this event....just like Tony George predicted years ago.

Exactly, hell a segment of the current fanbase would like for this to happen. On the Indycar board we had someone saying that Indy should not matter more then the other races.. lol

It's just freaking sad..

[hdolan]

"33 (maybe) cars at Indy. They should just cancel the first week of practice, let them show up on Thursday the 24th, practice for one day, qualify for 2 hours after the Freedom 100 on the 25th, do the parade on the 26th, race on the 27th and get the hell out of town."



I think that is a real possibility in the not so distant future...you do what the traffic will bear...it is a business...

[RS2]

This thread has the wrong title. It should just be called Guess Time.

[DaveL]

There was a time when I looked forward to driving 3 hours one way from Chicago to Indy for Bump Day. I went because I loved the competition.

Bump Day was for the hard luck cases-the teams hoping the sixth engine they've installed will be the one that will get them in the field, the team hoping the car that was crashed earlier in the month had been put back together in good enough shape to make the show, the team hoping that their car was not one year too many out of date, the team that struck a deal the night before for a car to replace a wrecked machine. If it wasn't the hard luck cases, it was the second week efforts. These were the deals put together after the first weekend of qualifications when back ups went up for sale and an owner was willing take a gamble. We all know the stories. I won't repeat any as examples.

Come race day I looked at the grid and knew that these were the efforts that went through hell's half acre to make the show. They were the 33 survivors of four days of time trials over two weeks and there was a dozen or more efforts that had to pack up and go home to lick their wounds.

Now? The field will not be the result of competition. It's not the survivors. It's the 33 that managed to get an engine lease, nothing more.

Just about now is when Turn 13 chimes and tells me that I should like it anyway because it's the fastest most exciting oval racing blah blah blah. And someone else will say I should like it because that's all we can afford (I never could understand why we can't afford less expensive alternatives).

Well guess what? I don't have to like it.

Indy has always meant competition to me, whether it's competition between the hard luck teams on Bump Day to competition between the big boys on Pole Day. It was competition between small engine shops and between multi national auto makers. Indy had always meant open competition on the track, not a race to see who can get an engine lease.

Sorry T13 and anyone else who will try to convince me that I should like whatever is offered to me. I know what Indy meant to me. It doesn't mean that anymore. When it returns to what Indy meant, then convince me I should like it again.

[kevin99]

Make these the Indycars and you'd have 60-70 or more of them entered the first year.




I just had to post this LPBF.

[Todd Gack]

This thread has the wrong title. It should just be called Guess Time.

Yes, too bad most of it is 100% true.

Instead of hanging out over at IC board with a bunch of people who have no idea what they are talking about, you could come over here and actually find out what is going on in the sport. We don't have a bunch of posters here, but the ones we got know what the hell is up. Even Paff (sometimes).

I mean, there are posters on the IC board still yammering on about teams "rolling out a backup car on Bump Day". And they are serious about it. That hasn't happened in 9 years and it sure as hell isn't going to happen this year. Them days, are long over with.

Whatever number we start the month with (likely 33) is what we are going to finish with. Just the way Honda and Chevy wanted it.

[Todd Gack]

There was a time when I looked forward to driving 3 hours one way from Chicago to Indy for Bump Day. I went because I loved the competition.

Bump Day was for the hard luck cases-the teams hoping the sixth engine they've installed will be the one that will get them in the field, the team hoping the car that was crashed earlier in the month had been put back together in good enough shape to make the show, the team hoping that their car was not one year too many out of date, the team that struck a deal the night before for a car to replace a wrecked machine. If it wasn't the hard luck cases, it was the second week efforts. These were the deals put together after the first weekend of qualifications when back ups went up for sale and an owner was willing take a gamble. We all know the stories. I won't repeat any as examples.

Come race day I looked at the grid and knew that these were the efforts that went through hell's half acre to make the show. They were the 33 survivors of four days of time trials over two weeks and there was a dozen or more efforts that had to pack up and go home to lick their wounds.

Now? The field will not be the result of competition. It's not the survivors. It's the 33 that managed to get an engine lease, nothing more.

Just about now is when Turn 13 chimes and tells me that I should like it anyway because it's the fastest most exciting oval racing blah blah blah. And someone else will say I should like it because that's all we can afford (I never could understand why we can't afford less expensive alternatives).

Well guess what? I don't have to like it.

Indy has always meant competition to me, whether it's competition between the hard luck teams on Bump Day to competition between the big boys on Pole Day. It was competition between small engine shops and between multi national auto makers. Indy had always meant open competition on the track, not a race to see who can get an engine lease.

Sorry T13 and anyone else who will try to convince me that I should like whatever is offered to me. I know what Indy meant to me. It doesn't mean that anymore. When it returns to what Indy meant, then convince me I should like it again.

Spot on Dave. I feel your pain. And I don't have to drive 3 hours either.

For me and many others, qualifying at Indy was more interesting and more compelling then the actual race was. There were many years where the race, actually kinda sucked. But qualifying at Indy hardly ever sucked. That was human drama, that didn't need gimmicks or goofy rules or rock bands to liven up. It was simple and it was pure. And it was great television and great radio. Joy for the winners and agony for the losers. Just like sport is supposed to be about. Indy was as much about John Mahler and Ted Prappas and Roger Rager and Billy Boat as it was about AJ and Mario and Mears and Little Al. It was about car swapping the night before Bump Day. Drivers being fired and new drivers jumping into cars on Sunday morning of Bump Day. It was just about making it into the race, however you did it. No provisionals. No guarantees. You didn't know the field of 33 before the first lap of the month. You only knew it once the gun went off and the final car's run was completed.

Some of our new IC fans don't understand it. They probably grew up on Formula 1 or NASCAR, where qualifying is basically another test session. They weren't around in the 70's and 80's and 90's and early 2000's, when Indy qualifying actually meant something. Meant everything to some teams and drivers.

Now we have fans saying, "we don't need to send teams home, because it might hurt their chances for the rest of the season". Big friggin' deal. "It costs too much to miss the race". Tell that to all of those low-buck owners (who probably couldn't even get a credential to get into the pits nowadays) who used to put it all on the line just to try and make the Indy 500. We are really going to cry a river for Jay Penske or Bryan Herta if they don't make the Indy 500 one year? Methinks their bank accounts will be just fine in the long-run.

We have too many folks, in power positions right now, who don't have a clue about the history of the Indy 500. Or if they do, don't have enough pull to make anything happen. Which is the saddest thing of all. People just watching this event being flushed down the toilet with the rest of Indy Car Racing.

"Wait until next year", they say. How many more years are we going to hear that? Pretty soon, there won't be a next year to wait for. And BTW, what incentive will Honda or Chevy have next year to do anything more than what they already are doing (which is the bare minimum at Indy)? You think they are going to go out of their way to help David Byrd or Paul Diatlovich or Greg Beck (just throwing 3 names out there) put a Indy-only team together? Hell no. And risk one them bumping out one of "their" full-time teams or drivers? Not going to happen. Not in 2012 and not in 2013.

And if I am a rookie this year (or in 2003 or 2004 or 2005), do I really want to make my first Indy 500 start, when basically all I have to do is put a race setup on the car and put 4 easy laps together to make the field? I am pulling big-time for Bryan Clauson and he will have people showing up this year specifically just to see him at Indy. But I want to see him make the Indy 500 "the right way". The same way Rich Vogler had to or the same way Billy Vukovich III had to or the same way JJ Yeley had to. Not because he was lucky enough to get one of the 33 engine leases that were rationed out in 2012. I bet he would say the same thing. I'd bet Newgarden and Cunningham, deep down, feel the same way.

This isn't the Casino Magic 500K or the Grand Prix of Alabama. Where if you show up you get to race. This is the Indianapolis 500. Its not just another race on the IC schedule. I think we have forgotten that.

The equipment is not plentiful this year, but there is enough out there for 36-37 car/driver combos at Indy. I know that for a fact. I am sure we could see 40 car/driver combos next year, without much effort at all. Will we? Yea, right.

[Indyknut]

For me and many others, qualifying at Indy was more interesting and more compelling then the actual race was. There were many years where the race, actually kinda sucked. But qualifying at Indy hardly ever sucked. That was human drama, that didn't need gimmicks or goofy rules or rock bands to liven up. It was simple and it was pure. And it was great television and great radio. Joy for the winners and agony for the losers. Just like sport is supposed to be about. Indy was as much about John Mahler and Ted Prappas and Roger Rager and Billy Boat as it was about AJ and Mario and Mears and Little Al. It was about car swapping the night before Bump Day. Drivers being fired and new drivers jumping into cars on Sunday morning of Bump Day. It was just about making it into the race, however you did it. No provisionals. No guarantees. You didn't know the field of 33 before the first lap of the month. You only knew it once the gun went off and the final car's run was completed.

Yes, pre-internet, I used to subscribe to the Indy News and Star via mail for the entire month of May just to make sure I got all the stories that the national news feeds didn't bother with.

Newspapers...... a long time ago..... before there was a split in the sport that lasted 12 years and caused irrepairable damage....

Some of our new IC fans don't understand it. They probably grew up on Formula 1 or NASCAR, where qualifying is basically another test session. They weren't around in the 70's and 80's and 90's and early 2000's, when Indy qualifying actually meant something. Meant everything to some teams and drivers.

I was at Indy in '96 even though I was a CART fan. I went again in 2000 and 2001. It already wasn't the same then. You could feel it, see it.

Now we have fans saying, "we don't need to send teams home, because it might hurt their chances for the rest of the season". Big friggin' deal. "It costs too much to miss the race". Tell that to all of those low-buck owners (who probably couldn't even get a credential to get into the pits nowadays) who used to put it all on the line just to try and make the Indy 500. We are really going to cry a river for Jay Penske or Bryan Herta if they don't make the Indy 500 one year? Methinks their bank accounts will be just fine in the long-run.

We have too many folks, in power positions right now, who don't have a clue about the history of the Indy 500. Or if they do, don't have enough pull to make anything happen. Which is the saddest thing of all. People just watching this event being flushed down the toilet with the rest of Indy Car Racing.

Yes, new fans and new people in power who weren't around for the glory days. The only way for them to "get it", when it comes to all the great things that Indy had once been about, is for them to have actually lived it like us. You can't infuse those old warm, bubbly feelings you have about Indy to somebody that wasn't there to actually feel those things themselves.

Indy is ground zero in the former OW split. Indy car racing has to be rebuilt and nobody has the monetary means to do it without the help of companies like Chevy or Honda. Unless ICS finds itself in a position like it was in the 70's, 80's or 90's, they call the shots. ICS is on financial life support. The Hulmans are tired of pizzing away money supporting OW racing on their own. They want a return that puts their books in the black and are obviously willing to turn their backs on traditions to get it.

[Kurt Cobain]

Nothing says Indy Tradition more than engine companies deciding how many entries will be allowed for the race and teams going through all kinds of gymnastics to try to get a lease. Yesiree, this is the sort of thing that makes me dream about the moonlight on the Wabash.

I know, I know...wait till next year.

Geez, you would think you have suffered enough with the Cubs.

[DaveL]

Geez, you would think you have suffered enough with the Cubs.

The Cubs always find new ways to make me suffer. They've had a ton of experience at it.

[Todd Gack]

Indy is ground zero in the former OW split. Indy car racing has to be rebuilt and nobody has the monetary means to do it without the help of companies like Chevy or Honda. Unless ICS finds itself in a position like it was in the 70's, 80's or 90's, they call the shots. ICS is on financial life support. The Hulmans are tired of pizzing away money supporting OW racing on their own. They want a return that puts their books in the black and are obviously willing to turn their backs on traditions to get it.

This has nothing to do with "The Split" anymore.

That's long over with now. We can't keep blaming every problem and every misstep that this sport takes in 2012, on what happened a decade ago. "The Split" effected the other races and the rest of the sport. But the Indy 500 was never truly apart of the rest of the sport, back in the "good ole' days". They had their own rules. Their own way of qualifying. You were there all month. It was its own entity.

This has everything to do with the CURRENT powers in the ICS giving all of their power over to a couple of engine manufacturers, to help "lure" them to the sport. They can write the rules and say who can run and who can't and limit the field and keep new teams from forming, even just for the Indy 500. And then being flabbergasted when they do the bare-ass minimum for the Indy 500 and treat it more like the Casino Magic 500K then the Indianapolis 500.

This rotten deal we have this year (and had in 2003 and 2004 and 2005 and what has led us to having fewer then 40 car/driver combos at Indy for every year since 2003) has everything to do with engine manufacturers having way too much influence. Which could have as easily happened with or without any "split". And probably would have.

[DaveL]

This has nothing to do with "The Split" anymore.

That's long over with now. We can't keep blaming every problem and every misstep that this sport takes in 2012, on what happened a decade ago. "The Split" effected the other races and the rest of the sport. But the Indy 500 was never truly apart of the rest of the sport, back in the "good ole' days". They had their own rules. Their own way of qualifying. You were there all month. It was its own entity.

This has everything to do with the CURRENT powers in the ICS giving all of their power over to a couple of engine manufacturers, to help "lure" them to the sport. They can write the rules and say who can run and who can't and limit the field and keep new teams from forming, even just for the Indy 500. And then being flabbergasted when they do the bare-ass minimum for the Indy 500 and treat it more like the Casino Magic 500K then the Indianapolis 500.

This rotten deal we have this year (and had in 2003 and 2004 and 2005 and what has led us to having fewer then 40 car/driver combos at Indy for every year since 2003) has everything to do with engine manufacturers having way too much influence. Which could have as easily happened with or without any "split". And probably would have.

Yep.

[Chris Paff]

This has nothing to do with "The Split" anymore.

That's long over with now. We can't keep blaming every problem and every misstep that this sport takes in 2012, on what happened a decade ago. "The Split" effected the other races and the rest of the sport. But the Indy 500 was never truly apart of the rest of the sport, back in the "good ole' days". They had their own rules. Their own way of qualifying. You were there all month. It was its own entity.

This has everything to do with the CURRENT powers in the ICS giving all of their power over to a couple of engine manufacturers, to help "lure" them to the sport. They can write the rules and say who can run and who can't and limit the field and keep new teams from forming, even just for the Indy 500. And then being flabbergasted when they do the bare-ass minimum for the Indy 500 and treat it more like the Casino Magic 500K then the Indianapolis 500.

This rotten deal we have this year (and had in 2003 and 2004 and 2005 and what has led us to having fewer then 40 car/driver combos at Indy for every year since 2003) has everything to do with engine manufacturers having way too much influence. Which could have as easily happened with or without any "split". And probably would have.

Excellent post.. We saw this before in 2003.. History repeats itself.. Also the cars and engines have not made any impact on the popularity of the series.. We should have kept the old cars but allowed updates every few years until the popularity increased..

[fasteddy]

Excellent post.. We saw this before in 2003.. History repeats itself.. Also the cars and engines have not made any impact on the popularity of the series.. We should have kept the old cars but allowed updates every few years until the popularity increased..

Are you kidding me? I'm losing sleep just waiting to see the Chevy logo on those new cars!

[lotuspoweredbyford]

Make these the Indycars and you'd have 60-70 or more of them entered the first year.




I just had to post this LPBF.

And that would be the first time since 1999 I didn't show up.

And if those were the cars, I wouldn't show up again, ever.

So there, that's all you need to do to get rid of me

[DaveL]

If Indy has less value because of the split, wouldn't it make the most sense to allow for less expensive alternatives to leasing the engine the series you must lease at the price you must pay?

Evidently sense is no longer part of the equation.

[Jim Wilke]

Spot on Dave. I feel your pain. And I don't have to drive 3 hours either.

For me and many others, qualifying at Indy was more interesting and more compelling then the actual race was.

The 125s used to be extremely compelling, better than the Daytona 500. The Busch series used to have up and coming stars battling to make the next step. NASCAR used to have a whole bunch of rookies trying to be the ROY.

College basketball used to have teams filled with seniors who had 4 years of strong experience under their belt.

Baseball teams used to have dozens of black players and Americans, kids who spoke English. Lady's golf tournaments were won by Americans, some of them heterosexual. My dad's car had windows you rolled up with a crank, my sister used to cook popcorn in a pot.

What happened?

[Turn13]

This has nothing to do with "The Split" anymore.

It does, to the extent that popularity has been reduced.

Until that is no longer the case, everything is different. In some ways, it's more debilitating and affecting to have been popular and lost it, than it is to have never been so popular before Especially when people don't account for that in arguments about how to "get back" to it.

You get back the same way you got there - one personal endorsement at a time.

[Turn13]

And that would be the first time since 1999 I didn't show up.

And if those were the cars, I wouldn't show up again, ever.

So there, that's all you need to do to get rid of me

I would try, but it would be agony. They would be slow, unsafe, and ill-suited. I watch these all the time, and the wheel-to-wheel contact is constant, the results dire, and on a track like Indy, unbelievably traumatic.

[kevin99]

I would try, but it would be agony. They would be slow, unsafe, and ill-suited. I watch these all the time, and the wheel-to-wheel contact is constant, the results dire, and on a track like Indy, unbelievably traumatic.

Yeah, 50 years of history, I'm surprised Indianapolis even survived since they were so much agony to watch.

[Indyknut]

If Indy has less value because of the split, wouldn't it make the most sense to allow for less expensive alternatives to leasing the engine the series you must lease at the price you must pay?

Evidently sense is no longer part of the equation.

I suspect Honda and Chevy are providing more than just engines to the series. Given the weak state of at track attendance as well as abysmal TV ratings on a somewhat obscure network, I'd guess they want some assurances that some up-start guy like a John Menard doesn't show up at INDY with some home made stock block V6 engines (or whomever) and show them up. They want some sort of return on their investment in a series that offers very few opportunities for such returns.

[DaveL]

I suspect Honda and Chevy are providing more than just engines to the series. Given the weak state of at track attendance as well as abysmal TV ratings on a somewhat obscure network, I'd guess they want some assurances that some up-start guy like a John Menard doesn't show up at INDY with some home made stock block V6 engines (or whomever) and show them up. They want some sort of return on their investment in a series that offers very few opportunities for such returns.

If Chevy and Honda are in the sport to compete then they'll work to make sure that a low-buck effort doesn't show them up, or if they are they'll make sure it doesn't happen twice. If they are just there to advertise for their own benefit then perhaps we need a larger conversation. Indy, at least to me, has always been about competition. If Chevy and Honda just want to advertise they should just stick to buying signage at tracks and leave the competition to competitors.

[lotuspoweredbyford]

Yeah, 50 years of history, I'm surprised Indianapolis even survived since they were so much agony to watch.

These are hardly as cool as the roadsters, i mean, please.

Comparing what you pictured to a roadster is like comparing the 2000 Honda Civic I drove for a year with a 2012 Camaro or something.

They're fine for what they are, but as the face of the 500, (I can't believe I am about to say this), I'd rather have that Delta Wing thing.

[lotuspoweredbyford]

Make these the Indycars and you'd have 60-70 or more of them entered the first year.




I just had to post this LPBF.

You really are trying to get rid of me kevin99 !! I thought we were pals !!!

I would like watching these at IRP though.