I don't see how they can make it.
They don't have the cash to run a season in 2004.
Their value to any investor is pennies on the dollar. If that.
Even if an offer is accepted, by the time all of the due diligence is completed many months will have passed, with the series still in limbo.
As it currently stands, they can not make any commitments to tracks, etc. for 2004 until the financial mess is straightened out.
I just don't see it happening.
Do you?
The question for me isn't can it be done... it most certainly can.
The question is WILL it be done.
If it doesn't have wings... It isn't worth talking about!
I guess it depends on how much the investors are willing to sink into it. The only reason anyone knows any of the details of Cart's expenditures is because it's been a public company for the last 5 years. I wonder how much Hulman cash has gone into the IRL for the last 8 years. It takes money to run a series the size of Cart, if you see a payoff at the end of the road and are a good salesman, you could make the whole thing work and sell the idea to corporate America getting them to flit the bill at the same time.
My thoughts exactly.Originally posted by speedvis
The question for me isn't can it be done... it most certainly can.
The question is WILL it be done.
IRL, Champcar and F1 fan
I sent you a pm yesterday. Did you get it?Originally posted by trac-champ
I guess it depends on how much the investors are willing to sink into it. The only reason anyone knows any of the details of Cart's expenditures is because it's been a public company for the last 5 years. I wonder how much Hulman cash has gone into the IRL for the last 8 years. It takes money to run a series the size of Cart, if you see a payoff at the end of the road and are a good salesman, you could make the whole thing work and sell the idea to corporate America getting them to flit the bill at the same time.
Do you have any idea to the "how" of that?Originally posted by speedvis
The question for me isn't can it be done... it most certainly can.
I have been involved from the standpoint of being an employee of a company that was being offered for sale, and our business was in limbo for 2 years as different offers were submitted, rejected, negotiated, etc. We could not enter into new business agreements, current customers resourced their business due to our uncertain future, etc.
The most serious buyer did over 6 months of financial disclosure, only to lower their offer right before the sale was to close.
I just don't see how any deal can be completed in time for Cart to plan for a 2004 season.
The mechanics of these deals take forever to work out.
Speedvis, agree....and another question is HOW it will be done.
I could guess all day... the problem is that I don't access to the actual accounting books.Originally posted by indyracer56
[B]Do you have any idea to the "how" of that?
The basic idea is simply this... reduce the schedule until revenue MEETS expenses. Start with your biggest losers, and drop them. And some of those drops are going to hurt. But it has to be done. Basically... go with what's working.
That should also help the teams continue into 04.... fewer races fewer expenses.
Some will shoot holes in this... as I said.. I could guess all day long, but without access to the books, it's very difficult to know the real places to cut.
Speedvis, I see your point. The radical changes would be the venues where there's revenue-sharing or CART promotion. Those would be the ones to go. The ones paying sanction fees would be the basis of the reconstructed series. That defines the starting revenue stream for a sanctioning body (whether Pook calls it a marketing or entertainment company or not). You must cut staff to lean out the program. You must cut TV to what you can afford. You must figure out if there's going to be race teams left to do it or not in the first place. Possibly, from that, you build.
Well, judging by what is public knowledge of Cart's financials, that might mean a 6 race season with 10 or less cars. At most.Originally posted by speedvis
I could guess all day... the problem is that I don't access to the actual accounting books.
The basic idea is simply this... reduce the schedule until revenue MEETS expenses. Start with your biggest losers, and drop them. And some of those drops are going to hurt. But it has to be done. Basically... go with what's working.
That should also help the teams continue into 04.... fewer races fewer expenses.
Some will shoot holes in this... as I said.. I could guess all day long, but without access to the books, it's very difficult to know the real places to cut.
Aside from the losers at cr*pwagon, I don't think that anyone will care. Heck, the AIS has a better schedule than that.
Cart is trapped by their own image.........Pook has spent them into the poor house to maintain it...but now what?
And I just don't see anyone commitming to Cart for 2004 with all of this up in the air.
Go to the SpeedTV web site and read David Phillips interview with the owner of Mid-Ohio.
The picture will be much clearer of what the tracks are looking for and the time frame that things must happen within......and I don't see Cart able to meet either one.
Take off the "fan glasses" and look at it in the real world.
And did you read the article stating that "Bernard" was considering an offer to buy Cart all summer and just decided to withdraw......finally opening the door to others?
Perhaps he was just toying with Cart, stalling all summer to lock them into the current situation?
Brenie has wanted to kill Cart for many years....maybe he finally got the chance?
Read it for yourself:
http://uk.sports.yahoo.com/030819/65/e6grl.html
indyracer, thanx for the link. That story quotes The Guardian in London as saying BE withdrew an offer but there is nothing on The Guardian's site that I can find. That's the first piece I've read which states BE actually made an offer. I can't believe he did. If he did at some point, it would have had to be reported by CART. The Indianapolis Star reported yesterday that Vannini had filed a suit. I can't find that to be true, either.
I don't think that Bernard ever actually tendered the offer......I would guess that the offer was just a chance for Bernie to tie up Pook and Cart all year to put them in the situation that they are in now. I would think that it was never more than a "verbal" agreement.Originally posted by indycool
indyracer, thanx for the link. That story quotes The Guardian in London as saying BE withdrew an offer but there is nothing on The Guardian's site that I can find. That's the first piece I've read which states BE actually made an offer. I can't believe he did. If he did at some point, it would have had to be reported by CART. The Indianapolis Star reported yesterday that Vannini had filed a suit. I can't find that to be true, either.
I would say to look for the return of F1 to Long Beach for the Grand Prix West in 2004....it would fit into the gap in the schedule just before the USGP at Indy....don't you think?
Won't happen. Pook has already said that Miami is an important market for them, they must stay there. They lost $10 million there last year. It will stay on the schedule.The basic idea is simply this... reduce the schedule until revenue MEETS expenses. Start with your biggest losers, and drop them.
You know that both Mexican races stay; they are important to Fernandez, Jourdain, Dominguez and, of course, Forsythe promotes with able help from D-Prod Joe.
All 3 Canadian races stay. I believe they make money and that Forsythe will demand to show off his Canadian drivers and maybe his Canadian sponsor.
Long Beach stays because it is Long Beach and because of Dover.
Mid-Ohio stays to keep Rahal on board.
Road America stays to keep Mario on board.
Cleveland stays with CART/MotoRock! as promoter.
Milwaukee stays to keep the after-Indy and night spots.
Fontana stays, they have a contract and they pay a big fee.
Ditto for Surfers.
Denver and St. Pete stay, they just got started and have contracts.
So what's left to cut? Portland, Laguna and the 2 Euro races? Ain't enough to matter.
I believe that was the Board's thinking when they hired Pook. That hasn't worked all that well.if you see a payoff at the end of the road and are a good salesman, you could make the whole thing work and sell the idea to corporate America getting them to flit the bill at the same time.
indyracer, I don't even think it could have been a verbal commitment without a report to the BoD. As for Long Beach, Bernie said a couple of years ago that it'd take $30 million to bring that operation up to F1 standards. I don't think Dover will "bite" on that.
Jim, I agree on most of your schedule changes, but not all.
Miami -- If there's a change in ownership, Pook is out and Sanchez is off the BoD, so Miami's gone again for the third time. Or is it fourth?
Mid-Ohio -- stays with new ownership, goes if no sale.
Road America -- same as Mid-Ohio.
Cleveland -- stays IF Motorock is the promoter and can somehow build something huge around the Rock 'n Roll Hall of Fame down the street from Burke. IMG is gone. CART will be out of the promotion business either way.
Milwaukee -- could well go if it's the only remaining oval.
Considering how the economy has gone, I'd say this was the worst possible time for this to happen. That said, whoever buys will have to invest a considerable amount of his or her own money to keep this going. I can think of only Forsythe who has that kind of cash.Originally posted by Jim Wilke
I believe that was the Board's thinking when they hired Pook. That hasn't worked all that well.
Blaming CART's failure and Pook's lousy performance on the economy is a pretty flimsy excuse. CART's troubles had been coming at them for years; Pook was hired to turn that around and he failed miserably. Bad economy or no, he should have been able to find ONE associate sponsor. Nada. Zip. Zero.
IIRC, Sanchez has already been offered the Miami deal and said, "no, thanks." Again, if any of the current CART folks are involved, Miami stays. They have too much invested.Miami -- If there's a change in ownership, Pook is out and Sanchez is off the BoD, so Miami's gone again for the third time. Or is it fourth?
Things change. This one is about to.Originally posted by Jim Wilke
[B]Won't happen. Pook has already said...
Without figures in hand... you can't make a judgement on any one particlular event or group of events.
Jim,
Do you really see C^RT having a 2004 season?
I just can not see it. Unless someone is willing to support the series with about 50 million in cash.
By the end of this year, I bet C^RT is at zero or pretty close to it. If there is no buyer they will not have the money to race or if they do have the funding to start the season they will not have funding to finish the season, let alone pay for teams, and pay for TV.
If Gerry and company take over (at 50 cents a share) they claim they will spend 15 million to operate C^RT in 2004. That isn't enough. Not even close....unless the teams are fully funded, they reduce the schedule to only money makers, and there is no TV.
C^RT spent 20 million on administrative costs the last 2 years, perhaps with a lean mean C^RT they could get down to 5 million, but that would be pretty barebones. C^RT will spend about 24 million on TV this year, I would say 10 million won't get them far.
Now the ESP program....opps we've already spent 15 million on a barebones administration and poor TV. No money for ESP, no money for race promotion, no money for an 18 car field.
Of course this assumes the teams are fully funded, but what sponsors are going to rush to spend a million or two on a series with lets say 12 races and poor to no TV coverage?
I bet, unless there is a purchase by the end of September there won't be any sponsors, besides Lilly and Mconalds and a Canadian firm for Gerry. And really September is pushing it.
I just can't see people (even the fans in Canada) flocking to see 10 cars compete in a 12 race series. Sure there will be some, but IMO attendance would be down more than 50%.
I really really can't see someone spending millions attempting to do that. Can you????
Stock price opened at $1.10 this morning and last I looked, it was at $1.12......that 50-cent offer is beginning to look much more real.
220mph pointed out elsewhere that the $15 million is "capped" and the paperwork says the bidders can pull the plug by March 1, 2005, so it COULD only be a one-season takeover to see what flies.
You can say the same thing for landing a man on Mars too....but without the dollars and the will to spend them, it won't happen.Originally posted by speedvis
The question for me isn't can it be done... it most certainly can.
Hey, Mr. Cr*pwagonner, Do you know how many EARL fans it takes to destroy CART?
None....they did it to themselves.
Do you know what the crook said to the stupid Cr*pwagon member?
"Pssst....wanna buy some shares of MPH....cheap?"
No, I don't see how CART can pull this off this quickly. There are way too many hoops to jump through. The first race in St. Pete is just 6 months away, spring training prior to that. They don't even have an offer that has been accepted. Then comes SEC approvals, hearings, law suits, on and on. In the mean time, there are only 6-8 cars with sponsors that could run next year.
My guess is that MotoRock! and TransAm get rolled out as a last-minute substitute.
Ah yes, the Tara mantra: CART is dead.Originally posted by Tara
Jim,
Do you really see C^RT having a 2004 season?
Let's see, last year you said (with great certainty) that CART would have about 13 cars and 13 races for 2003. This year you don't "see" them having a 2004. I can't wait 'till next year:
"CART WON'T ANSWER THE BELL FOR 2005!" I'll make sure and hold my breath.
Actually Indyfan31 I take great pride in my predictions since 1996. I haven't hit 100%, but I would say I'm in the 90% range.
Last year I said (unless there is a stock holder revolt) C^RT would race in 2003, because they have the money. But I doubted they would have sufficient funds to complete a 2004 season and that is exactly what happened. (to be honestI figured they would have the cash to start 2004, just not enough for the second half- I wasn't expecting Pook to spend it all in one year).
So I would say I did a pretty good job of predicting.
I did say I did not believe C^RT would have 18 cars, perhaps I guessed 10-13 (sounds about right but I don't save old post from message boards). But that prediction was based on sponsored cars and no knowledge again that Pook would go on a spending spree with stockholder funds. I think C^RT had about 10-13 sponsored cars this year, so again, outside of predicting Pook would spend all of C^RT's cash, I think I did a very good job of predicting an accurate out come.
Now that I have given you my prediction of C^RT in 2004 (you can save on your hard drive if that makes you happy). Please feel free to tell us your prediction of C^RT's 2004 season. I would love to hear it.
I don't make predictions Tara. Because, like you, I don't have all the facts. But, since it "makes you happy", you go on predicting CARTs death ... year after year.Originally posted by Tara
Now that I have given you my prediction of C^RT in 2004 (you can save on your hard drive if that makes you happy). Please feel free to tell us your prediction of C^RT's 2004 season. I would love to hear it.
Every single team has been paid to run this year, not just the new additions, but the rest, who weren't going to run against them if they weren't paid also. A series can't survive like that. How are you going to have any cars if you won't continue doing that? Are you still going to continue with "frozen" cars, while you continue to pay for the engines run in them. How do you explain the defining line between any real teams left and the rubble at the back of the pack? How do you explain Dale Coyne? How will you have any passing at all when you abandon real race tracks for downtown concrete corridors and rock concerts most of the "normal" people of the city you visit won't tolerate?
A CART like that has no possible future, next year, or the year after, all of this will be going on all over again.
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